Home » January /February 2023 » Reflections on War and Peace (1) – A Scenario for a Multipolar World Order
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Reflections on War and Peace (1) – A Scenario for a Multipolar World Order

by cyb2025
P. Gommers, B. Comanita
Business Strategy
Customer bond
Mergers & Acquisitions
strategic marketing
supply chain security

PETER GOMMERS1, BOGDAN COMANITA2

  1. Partner, MarketChemica & Assoc., Amsterdam, Netherland
  2. Managing Partner, MarketChemica & Assoc., Toronto, Canada

ABSTRACT

The confrontation in Ukraine demonstrates that globalization has already peaked, elevating supply chain management and reshoring policies into key strategic drivers. Our earlier articles had anticipated this (2-4). With military action currently underway (5), the world seems to have passed a geopolitical turning point that businesses have remained slow to acknowledge. This article makes the case for the necessity of a deep 2023-2026 strategy review addressing the incoming “Great Disconnect” between the East (6) and the West (7). Strategic planning should factor in long forgotten risks such as persistent inflation, fragmentation of global markets and regionalization of supply chains. The transition towards a multipolar world order stokes the embers of a potential hot war. Catalytic events include the upcoming 2024 US elections and the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2027. This scenario has significant implications for companies within the chemical industry.  Invest, divest, and reposition while the window of opportunity is still open. The time to act is now.

The Risk of a Sino-American Hot War: 75%
With Russia dominating the news cycle recently, it is easy to forget that China remains the full-spectrum peer competitor of the US (8). Russia remains a global source of commodities and ranks second to the US in terms of military power. However, with a GDP of less than 1/10th of the United States’, she is not a credible threat in and by herself. To compensate for her economic shortcomings, Russia has forged an alliance with China that bears profound negative strategic implications for the West. This is why leading thinkers of American realpolitik see escalation of the war in Ukraine as counterproductive to long-term EU and American interests (9, 10).

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Peter Gommers is a Partner at MarketChemica & Assoc. and Director of Peter4Strategy B.V. He has extensive hands-on experience in strategy, M&A, sustainability, innovation, marketing and sales. He has a PhD in Biotechnology from Delft and an MBA from INSEAD. Peter has worked for 30 years in the chemical industry at AkzoNobel and Nouryon in addition to working at McKinsey & Co, Banks and Private equity houses.

Bogdan Comanita founded Marketchemica in 2007 to support competitive intelligence in the fine and speciality chemicals industry. The company evolved to provide comprehensive strategic support for executives and investors in M&A, supply chain and market-risk management. Bogdan is the Managing Partner at MarketChemica & Assoc. He brings 30 years of fine and speciality chemicals industry experience to the practice. Recent company clients include Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, Macquarie Capital, Pfizer, Livent, Umicore and Wacker.

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