Reflections on War and Peace (1) – A Scenario for a Multipolar World Order

The Risk of a Sino-American Hot War: 75%
With Russia dominating the news cycle recently, it is easy to forget that China remains the full-spectrum peer competitor of the US (8). Russia remains a global source of commodities and ranks second to the US in terms of military power. However, with a GDP of less than 1/10th of the United States’, she is not a credible threat in and by herself. To compensate for her economic shortcomings, Russia has forged an alliance with China that bears profound negative strategic implications for the West. This is why leading thinkers of American realpolitik see escalation of the war in Ukraine as counterproductive to long-term EU and American interests (9, 10).

Pragmatism leans on some undeniable facts: China’s GDP caught up and started racing neck and neck with the US since 2014. She eventually stood victorious in 2017 as the largest economy in the world at purchasing power parity (11). The changes made under President Trump’s administration proved tardive and ultimately did not deliver. China’s GDP (at PPP) grew unstoppably to (Dollar)27 TRN versus the US’ (Dollar)23 TRN by the end of 2021 (Figure 1) (12). Clearly, the continuation of globalization favours mercantilist China. Figure 1 shows that in the “change-nothing” scenario, China could reach (Dollar)37 TRN versus the US’ (Dollar)26 TRN by 2027. The perspective of a gaping GDP difference of (Dollar)11 TRN between China and the US is sobering and puts a heavy burden on the Western political leaders. After a century of world domination, the American hegemon is confronted with the millennia-old “Thucydides trap”: