Reflections on War and Peace (1) – A Scenario for a Multipolar World Order
The confrontation in Ukraine demonstrates that globalization has already peaked, elevating supply chain management and reshoring policies into key strategic drivers. Our earlier articles had anticipated this (2-4). With military action currently underway (5), the world seems to have passed a geopolitical turning point that businesses have remained slow to acknowledge. This article makes the case for the necessity of a deep 2023-2026 strategy review addressing the incoming “Great Disconnect” between the East (6) and the West (7). Strategic planning should factor in long forgotten risks such as persistent inflation, fragmentation of global markets and regionalization of supply chains. The transition towards a multipolar world order stokes the embers of a potential hot war. Catalytic events include the upcoming 2024 US elections and the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2027. This scenario has significant implications for companies within the chemical industry. Invest, divest, and reposition while the window of opportunity is still open. The time to act is now.